Do Federal election results affect Ottawa housing?

Do you ever wonder if it makes a difference which major party is in power or whether we have a majority or minority government?

When it comes to Ottawa real estate here are some recent average selling prices that might give you a hint:

Harper Majority:              Trudeau Majority:

2012: +2.4%                        2016: +1.2%

2013: +1.6%                        2017: +5.5%

2014: +1.2%                        2018: +3.8%

2015: +1.6%                        2019: + 9.1% (through Sept)

So if you are voting based on your housing wallet, the choice is pretty clear…..though a minority government of any kind, pretty much ensures the cash will be flowing and all will be good in Ottawa real estate.

All in all, no party seems to have threatened (promised) to make any significant moves to balance the books, so while perhaps not good news overall, it certainly doesn’t seem to predict the tight budgets of the Harper majority or even the previous John Chretien majority, where budgets and headcount were threatened and Ottawa housing often paid the price.

The link between Federal headcount and program funding has a huge impact in the Ottawa economy and therefore housing. (and in Gatineau,  “don’t’-call-me-Hull” too)  For every Federal job in Ottawa there is probably another job in the private sector that is also largely tied to their employers business with the government.  So if a Federal majority government decides to go strong on a “balance the books” principle, we are bound to see our economy suffer and our housing market flat line.

During the last Harper majority, we suffered through buyers’ market conditions for 3 or 4 years’, with average price increases barely beating inflation.  New home construction (and all the jobs that go with it!) also suffered during this period.  All this turned round with 2015 election and the Sunny spending ways of the Liberal majority and their “modest” deficits which helped prime the pump for a reboot in Ottawa real estate that continues to gather steam.  New construction has been at unprecedented levels, sales increases and price increases have been double digit and we have a strong sellers’ market at the current time.

So please vote today, as it is unlikely our market will suffer from the most widely anticipated outcomes,

Gord McCormick, Broker of Record
Oasis Realty Brokerage 613-435-4692