February 2019 sales limited but average prices surge

snow and cold did not deter February buyers

Ottawa real estate showed a slight unit sales increase in the month of February 2019 of 2.8%, just a handful of sales ahead of last year.  Continuing listing inventory shortages pushed prices up but curtailed unit sales increases.

Here is a snapshot of key indicators for the month’s sales:
Unit sales:
Residential sales were up 3.8% during the month and condo sales were flat compared to last year.
Average prices:
The average residential sale was up 8.6% to $466,540 and the average condo sale was up 5.6% to $288,354
Listing inventory:
Residential listing inventory is 20.1% below last year and condo listing inventory is 31% lower than last year.
New listings:
Further compounding the listing inventory situation is the fact that new listings during the month were also on the negative side, with 6.5% fewer new listings during the month and 21.9% fewer condos.
If these trends continue, we should see continuing upward price pressure and a continuation of the sellers’ market conditions.

For your neighbourhood specific details, contact your Realtor or the undersigned.

Gord McCormick, Broker of Record

Oasis Realty Brokerage  613-435-4692 oasisrealty@rogers.com
text: 613-371-9691

Is Zillow the Netflix or Uber of the real estate business?

Zillow is now in Canada

What is Zillow™?
Zillow is one of the leading online real estate companies in the US and has recently expanded its presence to Canada.  The eventual public availability of sold data via the Competition Bureau vs Toronto Real Estate Board court decision in 2018 was a key milestone in this expansion.

Zillow™ (www.zillow.com ) was founded in 2006 by two ex-Microsoft employees and has since grown to $1.3 B in annual revenue. Headquarters is in Seattle and they are traded on Nasdaq. They have primarily grown by posting listings, attracting consumer clicks and selling advertising to real estate agents and other 3rd parties.  The have also amassed a collection of real estate related businesses and generate a huge volume of online traffic.

Where do they see the future?
While today they would characterize themselves as a real estate advertising and technology company,  in the future it seems clear they see tremendous growth for providing end to end “one-stop-shopping” via an online real estate system that connects buyers to sellers (with or without agents?) inspectors, photographers, stagers, mortgage brokers, lenders. Lawyers and any other party necessary to do a real estate purchase and sale.  They already have a system in the US where consumers can sell their home to Zillow for a guaranteed amount and then Zillow will remarket that property either themselves or via their existing Premiere Agents.
In a recent conference call on their Q4 2018 results, the company apparently has growth targets to get it to $22B in annual revenue in the next 3-5 years.  This is quite a leap from the current $1.3M !

Real estate market disruption:
Many consumers would agree that real estate has been ready for an Uber like disruption for some time and there is certainly some truth in that.  There is even a new business segment called Proptech that has generated large amounts of venture capital and stock market investment in recent years and this alone will push the sector development and growth exponentially.

Zillow™ has either built or acquired quite a few real estate related businesses and technology for providing better service and information to both consumers and Realtors and at a recent presentation here In Ottawa, quite strongly presented the position that organized real estate was an important stakeholder in their system and would continue to be.  In fact, we saw some US stats recently online that said that something like 93 % of real estate transactions in the US (National Assn of Realtors) involved a real estate professional which is actually quite higher than a decade ago.

In Canada?
Zillow ™ started up in Canada with its first hires in 2018 and has been publishing listings which of course are critical to getting the maximum online traffic.  Having the data on sold properties will be huge and eventually allow them to offer their Zestimate ™ feature which allows a consumer to get a real time online estimate of their homes value, using their advanced AI algorithm that depends on the sold data.  Consumers already see lots of these online but mostly rely on a Realtor on the other end to create an evaluation.

Getting this data and data from other sources (tax assessment, etc) and knitting it all together for Canada will take some time and the big challenges will be a) getting a significant % of Realtor listings and b) getting sufficient Realtor advertising funding and c) navigating the provincial regulatory rules across Canada to ensure compliance d) assimilating all the data and getting the word out to consumers e) dealing with all the local issues typical in Canada ie need for bilingual service, small widespread geography

Zillow is one of many but perhaps the best established:
There are many new entrants in the real estate business, and Zillow is but one of many.  They seem to have (for now anyway) an expansion by co-operation with organized real estate.  Many others do not and seek to simply eliminate and streamline the buying and selling process as much as possible and if that means eliminating the real estate agent and brokerage then so be it.

Purplebricks™ is another newer entrant to the Canadian market which is essentially a similar online business (though much smaller) disguised as a for-sale-by-owner company and a real estate brokerage.  Purplebricks™ is a UK based company which bought the Comfree organization in Canada last year.

Interesting to note: like many technology companies and other start-ups, few of these new companies are profitable, including Zillow™ which showed a net loss of $119M in 2019 on sales of $1.3B.

We think Zillow with their long term development in the US, will eventually be a leader in this space, here in Canada.

Just because it’s feasible, doesn’t mean it’s completely ready for prime time:
S
o there are many interesting changes coming for consumers and organized real estate but things often take a lot longer to materialize on the ground than technology and streamlined visions anticipate.

We are fortunate that we are not on the leading/bleeding edge of all these progressive disruptors and by the time they get to us in Canada, the winners will have been largely decided.  We have already seen failures and bankruptcies in this space in Canada.

In the meantime, Realtors must decide if and how they choose to participate with new entities such as Zillow™ and adjust accordingly.  Given the history of real estate in Canada where a strong national MLS®  program has been built on a very good system of “co-opetition”,  we can expect Realtors to be wary but ultimately adjustable.

Interesting times ahead to be sure!

Gord McCormick, Broker of Record
Oasis Realty Brokerage
Ottawa  613-435-4692 www.oasisrealtyottawa.com
oasisrealty@rogers.com

 

 

 

Why Ottawa will have the best winter sales in a decade or more

sales should help “warm” Ottawa winter

Ottawa real estate normally pretty much hibernates from late November to late February but this may not be the case this year.  Buyers and sellers will want to consider the following factors and consider whether they wish to move up their buying or selling plans accordingly:

 

Listing inventory at decade lows:
The level of available properties to purchase continues to be extremely low and the number of new listings coming on the market, shows no signs of reversing this trend. Supply/demand alone would suggest that this has to put more upward pressure on selling prices.

Residential listings are currently 17.5% lower than last year, 35.5% lower than 2016 and 48.8% lower than 2015.

Condo listings are 34.5% lower than 2017, 45.5% lower than 2016 and 55.8% lower than 2015.

Even rental listings are down quite significantly, 31.6% lower than last for MLS rental listings.

Beat the price increase!  Your next house is going up $2-3K a month!

With residential prices on the way up (+5.7% through Oct 2018) that dream house is getting more expensive day-by-day.  For example:  a $500,000 property today may well be $525,000 or even $530,000 by the end of 2019 peak selling season.  That’s an increase of $2,000 to $2,500 per month and with mortgage rates also headed north, the cost of servicing a mortgage is also increasing.  The mortgage “stress test” which is typically 2% above the mortgage rate being offered is also moving upwards as rates rise thus making approvals more challenging for some buyers.

New construction price and availability:
Builders are also facing limited availability, after two record years of sales and also are facing some labour shortages and price pressure.  All of these factors will also continue to push up the price of new construction.

Mortgage rates:
Rates are pretty well guaranteed to rise a half point in the next 6 to 12 months, with an outside chance of going up a full % point.  This adds challenge to the approval process (mortgage stress test) and monthly cost for buyers and homeowners, so buying now and locking in at a lower rate will have some advantages. *new construction buyers will have to make sure they get a guaranteed rate from their mortgage broker or bank to cover them for the longer new build timelines.

Local economy is strong:
The local economy seems pretty solid regarding employment and there appears to be no signs of the Federal Government doing any significant belt tightening in advance of next year’s election. (Though one never knows?)  So our market should continue its current moderate upward path in the immediate future.

Provincial and municipal budgets:

A “new” city council in Ottawa is in place and we also have a relatively new Provincial government in Toronto.  The Provinces’ fiscal challenges are well noted and there are also signs that the City of Ottawa has its own issues.  Here are a few things that could happen that might add cost for buyers and sellers:

  1. If Ottawa council feels really in a budget pinch, is it possible that a Municipal Land Transfer Tax (MLTT) could be implemented here? This would add $5,000-$10,000 to the typical residential purchase transaction cost here and would cause a bubble and price run up in advance of implementation.   To put this in perspective: the total land transfer tax on a $500K home would jump to almost $13,000 and $21,000 for a $700,000 home purchase.
  2. What is the Provincial government going to do to fix their huge fiscal problem? Could they raise the level of the Provincial Land Transfer Tax? Add some other “luxury” or other tax on housing?
  3. Could Ottawa raise development charges which once again adds to the cost of new construction homes and condos?
  4. What effect will “inclusionary zoning” have on costs of new construction? This principle requires builders and developers to include provision for lower cost housing in their new projects but will certainly affect the cost of new properties, as it becomes more prevalent in the near future.
  5. Do the Feds have any plans in their National Housing plan that might affect buyers, sellers or homeowners?

 

Gord McCormick, Broker of Record
Dawn Davey, Broker
Oasis Realty Brokerage

613-435-4692 oasisrealty@rogers.com

Optimizing real estate transaction costs

 

how to pay less real estate commission and get full service

The savvy seller can find a quality agent and broker and still get full service at lower commission rates.

What is normal commission?
The accepted norm for real estate commission is 5% of the sale price of a property.  Typically, the listing agent and the buyer representatives (and their respective brokerages) split this amount equally with 2.5% going to each.  With average prices continuing to climb, this adds up to a fair amount of a seller’s equity to cover the cost, as sellers normally pay both ends of the commission.

Don’t forget the HST! The average residential real estate transaction in Ottawa these days is almost $450,000, so this requires a commission payment of $22,500, using the 5% model…but wait…there’s more!  The HST is charged on the real estate services, adding another 13% or $2,925 to bring the total to $25,425.  So this is clearly and expense that a prudent seller will want to optimize.

As one can see from the photo enclosed, this seller paid only 3% commission which would be a savings of over $10,000 in commission and hst in the example of the typical $450,000 property above…that’s worth considering, right?

Typical commission splits between the sales person and the brokerage:
Most large brand name brokerage sales agents need to charge the 5% rates to cover their corporate overhead.  Though individual Realtors are able to determine their own listing fees as independent contractors, most are constrained via contract, company policy and management practice plus they also need to maximize their earnings, accounting for the split they must pay to the franchise and corporate real estate company.  These splits take 10-30% of the commission revenue earned in *most cases. (splits vary greatly across the industry)

Optimizing real estate commission:
There are many different commission approaches out there these days, many of them available from smaller or mid-size brokerages such as ours.  (to be fair, some agents with larger brokers also have variable commission fees but they are very hard to find-since they are typically not permitted to advertise their commission rates)

The challenge most sellers face is how to get a lower commission cost without having to sacrifice the level of service received.  Even the “for-sale-by-owner” companies (who misleadingly advertise “no commission”, IMHO) do most often require a commission payment to the agent and brokerage representing the buyer on top of the fees charged to “sell it yourself”.  Almost all buyer agents expect 2.5% (+HST) when providing a buyer and facilitating the transaction on behalf of both parties.  So “ for-sale-by-owner”  is not commission free and though it may cut down the total commission being paid, the seller does not have the same level of representation or service they would have had by engaging a listing sales person or Broker.

Mere Posting services:
There are some brokerages who offer very low “ listing end” fees but for limited services and of course, the buyer agent/representative is still looking for their 2.5%, so while this works for some, it may not be ideal in this high paced market.  While intuitively, our sellers’ market would suggest it is easier to sell and therefore marketing and service effort should be less (with commensurately lower cost)  this is not the case.  This market puts a lot of pressure on Realtors to get the price and marketing strategy right and manage a complex set of issues to get the best deal for their client.

The happy medium:
The growth of small and medium sized firms has proliferated in recent years, as many Realtors choose to lower their costs and also become more independent, away from the umbrella of the somewhat restrictive corporate franchise broker.

Firms like ours are able to offer lower commissions and more flexible programs, as we do not bear the overhead of the larger brokerage entities.

Types of commissions that work for sellers:
A seller who also buys with the same agent should expect to get some level of discount on the selling side.  We charge only 3% or 3.5% in this situation) A seller whose agent represents both the seller and a buyer of that property should also expect to pay less, since there is no other agent to pay. (we charge 2.5 or 3% only in these circumstances)

Day-in-day-out lower fees:
We offer the government contract rate of only 3.7% (+HST) for residential properties and 3.99% for condos or country residential properties on well and septic systems.

 Flat fees:
Some firms offer flat fees on the listing end ie $2,995 but typically there will also be a % charge for the buyer representative/brokerage, too.

Volume discount or negotiated discount:
Each property is different and each situation is different, so there may well be some discounts available based on the situation that can be negotiated.

Tips on commission hunting:
Make sure you know what services are being offered.  If you expect the typical suite of Realtor services, make sure these are being offered at the reduced price.  Ie if no professional photography, online marketing, showing feedback or open houses are included, you may not be getting the same value.

Make sure you know the commission rate being offered to the buyer representative who brings the buyer of your property.  Many lower commission plans also drop the % paid and this can have adverse consequences to a seller.

Make sure you know the distinction and are getting a full MLS® listing, as some agents offer a lower commission rate package on what is called an “exclusive listing” but this listing does not get published on MLS and the individual agent is often trying to sell the property themselves (like a pocket listing)  and not have to pay another Realtor for the buying end.  While this lower commission may be attractive, the power of MLS is that all listings go on realtor.ca and all Realtors and their buyers are exposed and engaged to get the listing sold to the widest possible audience. (2 million+ visitors per month)

Is the firm and individual offering the value priced commission experienced enough to manage your listing and are you comfortable with them?

Get all commission rates and service levels committed in writing and included as an addendum to the listing contract and that way you know what you are paying and what you are getting in return.

There are dozens and dozens of independent firms covering every corner of Ottawa, so don’t be shy about seeking one out and using them for your listing brokerage!

For more information about our boutique brokerage services, feel free to give us a call at 613-435-4692 or email oasisrealty@rogers.com  (not intended to solicit those working with other Realtors)  You can also find more Ottawa real estate information and tips at our social media accounts and blog below:

Gord McCormick, Broker of Record
Dawn Davey, Broker
Oasis Realty Brokerage Ottawa, ON

Oasisrealtyottawa.com
https://www.facebook.com/oasisrealtyottawa/
https://twitter.com/OasisrealtyOTT
http://blog.oasisrealtyottawa.com/

12th year in business!

 

Moving to Ottawa in 2018? …here’s how to get ready:

 

It could be “slim pickings” for buyers in 2018 Ottawa real estate:

The Ottawa real estate market has been improving steadily since spring 2016 and 2017 was probably the best year in a decade, with overall unit sales up 10.2% and prices up 6.8% for residential properties and 3.4% for condos.

The good news is Ottawa is still very affordable compared to many places across the country and one of its most stable markets.

Average selling prices 2017:
Detached single home: $ 451,306   +7.6%
Row townhome:            $ 343,958    +4.9%
Semi-detached home:   $ 420,042    +5.7%

Apartment condo:         $ 298,537    + 3.7%
2 story town/condo:     $ 230,141    + 2.9%

Tougher news for buyers will be scarcity of listing availability in 2018 and definite upward pressure on prices, as listings have fallen to very low levels all across the city.

New listings were down 8.7% over the course of 2017 and that trend is worsening already in 2018 with new residential listings in January down 30% compared to the 5 year average. Overall listing levels are down 21.7% for residential listings at year end and 27% for condos.

With increasing numbers of sales and lower numbers of new listings, the supply-demand balance will be swinging even more in favour of sellers, so buyers will have to be very aggressive and prepared for a tough seller’s market.

Here’s some things to do to be ready to buy:
1) have your team in place, so you are 100% ready to buy: Realtor, mortgage broker, insurance broker, inspectors, lawyer.  Make sure you and your spouse/partner are on the same page concerning priority level of housing features.

2) know your financial plan and pre-qualification levels before even looking at a property. Know whether you will need a property appraisal and if the new 2% qualification threshold applies to your file. Understand home operating and utility costs, as this may vary from your existing geographic location.  For example:  property taxes may be higher or lower and ditto for heating, electrical or water costs.  Ottawa has much higher property taxes than Toronto per $ of assessment, for example and we also have rental hot water heaters which those from out of Ontario may not know.

3) have a realistic target of home by type, area, features and price and narrow that as quickly as possible. No sense chasing rainbows in a tough market for buyers.  Wishing you can get the $525K house for $475K will not make it so.

4) have a plan for multiple offers. Well priced new listings will be attracting multiple offers, so discuss your position in advance with your Realtor.

5) consider builder quick occupancy inventory, as many builders are building some homes on spec to be available for peak delivery months ie summer.

6) search online for exclusive listings and other non MLS® posted properties. Many are “trying” listings out on 3rd party sites and social media before posting on MLS®, so you may find listings on social media groups or via search engine alerts.

7) drive through your geographic areas regularly (if possible) to look for new lawn signs popping up. New ones may have toppers that say:  “coming soon” or “exclusive” listing.  These may be good choices if you can find them before other buyers.  The fragmentation of listings from the central MLS® system makes it difficult for buyer agents to stay on top of all new listings appearing in your areas of interest and one cannot be satisfied that electronic means will be sufficient in getting you in to see the hot new listings, before other buyers.

If we can assist with your Ottawa purchase plans this year or answer any questions, please do not hesitate to call 613-435-4692

Gord McCormick, Broker of Record and Principal Broker
Dawn Davey, Broker
Oasis Realty Brokerage
oasisrealty@rogers.com

https://twitter.com/OasisrealtyOTT https://www.facebook.com/oasisrealtyottawa/   http://blog.oasisrealtyottawa.com/

 

How overuse of exclusive listings undermines MLS®

 

Given our existing low listing inventory situation, many Realtors are convincing their buyers to “try” an exclusive listing to sell their property. While anything a seller and listing agent choose to do is up to them, it does have some consequences for the overall market, including that particular seller.

These exclusive listings are often flagged with sign toppers that say “exclusive listing” or “Coming Soon…” and we believe many listing agents wish to cash in on the listing scarcity for their own marketing and prospect generation purposes. What better way to entice a buyer to contact them than to offer something they may not be able to access otherwise?

Seller cannot be sure they actually get full market value for their home/property:
Selling to a small subset or “VIP” audience of buyers does not necessarily generate a full market value offer. Full market value can only be obtained by the widest possible exposure of a listing to the full MLS® market over time and this does not happen with these grey market listings.
The bottom line is that if the seller is happy with the price they get…then so what? …but just like the seller who sells quickly and then wonders “ should I have listed higher?” the exclusive listing seller may wonder the same thing.

No oversight on “exclusive” listings:
These listings are not on MLS® and therefore not subject to the extensive policies and processes administered by our Ottawa Real Estate Board to ensure fairness and equal access. The Board has no authority to investigate such listings and the 63 pages of OREB MLS® rules do not apply, so though not probable-abuses are possible.  Ie. Might a listing agent choose to give preferential access to their exclusive listing to their own buyers?  Or to their own small circle of Realtor friends or preferred Realtors?  One of the reasons MLS® works so well is that it is available to all 3,000 plus Ottawa Realtors and their buyers with equal access.

Loss of listing inventory may artificially inflate demand in the MLS® marketplace:
Further limiting supply in the listing starved MLS® market, will only enhance demand and potentially push prices higher. Our Ottawa market has been successful over the years by being steady and not as subject to the peaks and valleys of some of our Canadian neighbours.  Spiking demand and driving prices up to double digit increases, risks a longer and flatter market when demand eventually does level off.

Loss of listing data hurts buyers, sellers and Realtors:
By selling a property on the open non MLS® market, the MLS® system gets no data capture from that transaction and that information cannot be used by future buyers and sellers (and their agents) to assess their own buying and selling plans. MLS® data (and photos!)  is critical to helping the marketplace judge what market value should be and losing out data makes that process more difficult.

Searching listings for buyers is a real challenge in this marketplace and the more places a buyer or buyer agent has to sift through to find new listings, makes the search process that much more difficult and frustrating.

MLS® listings should not be “old news”
If a large % of listings get advance marketed as “exclusive” listings for 2-4 weeks and then ultimately get listed on MLS® for full exposure then MLS® listings run the risk of being deemed “old news” which is not good for the credibility and integrity of MLS® as “the” place to go for new listings.

Just because you can, doesn’t mean you should:
Just because online marketing and social media presence make it easier and more immediate to market properties today than in the dark printed past, doesn’t mean one should short circuit the central MLS® system.

While many coin operated Realtors may choose to find the shortest, quickest way to a closing and a commission cheque, most will realize that continuing to utilize the MLS® system and protecting its integrity, is still the best way to market listings. Trying to short circuit the system for marketing advantage ultimately weakens our MLS® system and makes losers of us all.

Why is the listing agent proposing an exclusive listing?
We are clearly not in favour of the widespread use of exclusive listings and we certainly didn’t see too many of them when we had a buyers’ market back in 2015 or 2015. So most sellers should have the discussion with their listing agent and try to really understand what it is they are selling and why.  Ultimately, whatever seller and listing agent agree is fine but both parties should be aware that they could be missing out on “top dollar” by not marketing the property first on the full-fledged MLS® system where all buyers and their agents can easily find and consider the property on an equal access basis with well-defined policies and procedures in place.

If you wish to discuss this or any other residential real estate matter with us, we are happy to do so! Feel free to give us a call at 613-435-4692.  You can also follow other items of real estate interest on our website, blog and social media below.

Gord McCormick, Broker of Record
Dawn Davey, Broker
Oasis Realty Brokerage
www.oasisrealtyottawa.com   http://blog.oasisrealtyottawa.com/

https://twitter.com/OasisrealtyOTT   https://www.facebook.com/oasisrealtyottawa/

now at 1,500+ facebook “likes” and 12th year in business!

Are Realtors sabotaging MLS® with “grey market” listings?

We have experienced a relatively strong market over the last 18 months and listing scarcity has become an issue, as many areas have only a month or two of listing inventory. Listings in 2017 were down approximately 25% from the previous year (35% over 2 years) and with healthy sales, this made things difficult for buyers and their agents, especially those with an existing property to sell.

“Grey” market listings abound: (non MLS®)
In the face of dwindling listings, many Realtors (and their sellers) are getting creative about how they plan to market the listing to the best advantage of seller and Realtor. This includes the use of “exclusive” listings, “pocket” listings and future sale listings.  In most of these types of listings the listing agent does not publicize the listing widely/openly on the MLS® system.  (or at least initially) Instead these Realtors market via social media and a variety of 3rd party online sites.   Have you seen those “Coming Soon” or “Exclusive Listing”signs on front yards in your neighbourhood?  This is most likely an indication of a grey market listing.

How is this advantageous? (and to whom?)
Realtors do this for a number of reasons in our opinion:
-Realtors leverage the listing to potentially generate other buyer or seller prospects
-Realtors have a chance of “double ending” the listing, if they are able to find a buyer without having to pay another Realtor.
-The listing agent in many cases will have used these marketing concepts, combined with a lower listing commission to help close the listing in the first place.
-Realtors may be able to avoid the cost and time involved in some steps of the listing process ie professional photography, staging and also get to a sale sooner.
-are all the above consistent with the Realtor pledge of “first duty to client” or is the Realtor’s own marketing and prospecting activity subverting their principal duty to their seller client?
-some sellers may prefer not having a “wide open” MLS® listing where everybody and their brother are free to book random appointments to see their home.

So what’s the down side?
-these “ secret” listings become a bit of a holy grail and many Realtors really play this up:  Ie “ deal with me and I will get you the inside scoop on all the new listings, so you get to consider them BEFORE they hit MLS®.  Nobody, has access to all the “secret” listings, no matter how strong they may be in the neighbourhood.  The fairest and most democratic way is for all listings to make their way to MLS® where they can be considered by all buyers and their agents.
-all buyers do not get to consider the property and therefore demand is generated by only a small portion of the overall market.
-Buyers may be encouraged in to making a more impulsive offer, given the relative scarcity. This can result in buyer’s remorse and more conditional sales falling through which has been a factor in our market.
-these grey market listings that do not get to MLS®, also then further diminish the level of listing inventory available to MLS® buyers and therefore enhance the supply shortfall and help cause prices to rise.
-MLS® in recent years even includes most of the FSBO listings, so it is a fantastic central repository and marketplace. By withholding listings from MLS®, Realtors are not doing their seller, buyers or Realtor colleagues any favours.  Think for a moment if there was no MLS®?  Would you want Google or facebook to decide what listings you got to see?  MLS® is still ad free, too!
Do you want to have to scour hundreds of websites daily to find and stay on top of new listings in the marketplace?

Selling scarcity is nothing new:
Realtors, buyers and sellers will always adapt to scarcity and attempt to find ways to take advantage and this is no different, unfortunately, it can also lead to further scarcity in MLS® listings and possibly further demand spikes and price increases which is not good for buyers. It also removes some credibility from the MLS® system, if “ new”  listings are deemed to be old news by the time they are published on MLS®.

Seller choice:
A seller may find a deal without having to go through the full-fledged MLS® prep and marketing process and if they are happy with what they get, then so be it. Clearly, however, the best market value is to be obtained with the widest possible exposure to all buyers and their agents and that only happens with a listing on MLS®

Proponents will argue that they are only “getting the best deal” for their seller client but in many cases, we believe Realtor marketing and differentiation are the principal reason for use of these “grey marketing/non-MLS®” listings and that on balance this is not good for the overall market as it fractures and weakens the  central source of MLS® supply and exacerbates already existing supply problems.

Gord McCormick, Broker of Record
Dawn Davey, Broker
Oasis Realty Brokerage 613-435-4692  oasisrealty@rogers.com www.oasisrealtyottawa.com

12th year in business as a lower cost brokerage

 

Almost 3,000 fewer listings than the same point 2 years ago!

Listings (or lack thereof!) continue to be the dominant story in Ottawa real estate based on 3rd quarter results through the end of September.

Almost 3,000 fewer listings than at the same point only 2 years ago!
New listings in September are down 10.5% for residential properties and 20.3% for condos vs last year and 22.6% and 26.8% vs 2015.
Total listing inventory at month end is down this year 20.1% for residential listings and 24.1% for condos. Compared to 2015, listing inventory is down 35% for residential and 33.6% for condos.  Combined this means the current market has a 2,922 fewer properties available for sale at the end of September than the same point in 2015.

Sales up, inventory down, scarcity looms
With total sales demand up 12.1% vs 2015 for residential and 24.6% for condos, it is easy to see how we are seeing average prices rise and more multiple offers.

Residential sales: price growth fuelled by demand
Unit sales were actually down 1.8% in September but average selling price was up 8.2% to $416,464. On a year to date basis, residential unit sales are up 6.6% and the average selling price is up 7.2% to $425,139.

Condo market continues to show strength:
2017 has been one of the best condo markets in many years with unit sales thus far up 23.5% and the average selling price up 4.6% at $272,220.

Who benefits:
Sellers benefit in this market but of course, those who are also buying face a challenge on that end. One of the basic facts of real estate is that those who own a home are stuck both buying and selling in the same market conditions, so while one may gain on one side, they suffer on the other.

Buyers face more multiple offers, a very fast moving market on new listings and limited decision making time.

Builders have had a record year from anecdotal reports and we can certainly confirm that builder prices have been increasing and buyer incentives decreasing in the face of strong results and limited listing inventory in new construction also. Buyers are encouraged to keep an eye on new lot or phase releases or in demand inventory homes.  Also take your Realtor with you to the sales centre and consider asking for a “hold” or “reservation” for a short time from the builder, if possible.(though builders may also be tightening up on their willingness to accept such good “faith” agreements)

Bottom line and what to expect:
Though mortgage rates are creeping up with the Bank of Canada recent rate changes and there are continuing steps to tighten mortgage qualifications, our market appears pretty solid and poised for more growth.

Investors are still trying to figure out how new rental rules from the provincial government may affect them, so we could see some slackening in demand from this sector as a result.

As long as the federal government does radically alter their headcount and spending plans going in to the latter half of their mandate, our local economy should continue to be fairly buoyant and allow us to continue with the positive real estate trend lines which have been strengthening for the last 18 months.

This could be the best fall and winter in the last decade to be listing a property, given all the foregoing, so sellers should be reasonably confident they can find a buyer even in our historically seasonal hibernation between mid-November and mid-February.

Buyers should keep a close eye on the market as there may be some off season listing gems hit the market from sellers who have been awaiting a new build completion and have to list in the off season to accommodate their move in plans.

Gord McCormick, Broker of Record
Dawn Davey, Broker
Oasis Realty Brokerage
oasisrealty@rogers.com
www.oasisrealtyottawa.com  blog.oasisrealtyottawa.com
https://www.facebook.com/oasisrealtyottawa/
https://twitter.com/OasisrealtyOTT

11th year in business as a lower commission brokerage

 

Kanata starved for resale listing inventory in 2017

 

Ottawa listing inventory down 25% vs last year, 40% vs 2015

The Ottawa resale estate market is getting more than light on inventory after a year and a half of increasing unit sales coupled with a 10%+ decrease in the number of new listings, the overall market is down 25% on the number of available listings compared to a year ago and almost 40% from two years ago.

Even worse in Kanata!
As we approach the end of August, Kanata has barely one month’s worth of listing inventory to feed residential sales and about 3 months of condo sales. Normally, 4-6 months listing inventory is deemed to be a “balanced market”

How is this translating in to sales results?
Sales results have been surprisingly mixed with residential unit sales up 4.1% through July 2017 and condo unit sales up 22.6%. Somewhat surprisingly, residential sales are up an average of only 2.4% to $410,345 and condo sales basically flat (no increase) at $221,839.

Builders winning big this year:
While statistics are not readily available, it seems that new construction is having a runaway success in 2017. The last number we saw reported had builder starts up 44% this year and at least one builder has reported a 100% increase in sales.  Builders are also running out of inventory homes and we have seen numerous price increases and pull back on buyer incentives.

Neighbourhood synopsis:
Beaverbrook:
 (MLS® zone 9001)
Residential unit sales up 26.5 % through July with average selling price up 8.1% to $448,469.  The average house is selling in 1-2 weeks on the market, at slightly above listing prices.

Katimavik: (MLS® zone 9002)
Residential unit sales up 30.6% YTD with the average price up just 2% to $374,869.

Acute residential listing inventory shortage with less than a month of listing inventory currently on hand.
Typical sale is happening in 2-3 weeks on the market and selling at just below listing price.

Glencairn: (MLS® 9003)
Unit sales are up 18.3% with the average selling price up 6.2% to $312,878. Also acute listing inventory situation with less than one month’s anticipated sales available. Typical sale occurs in 2-3 weeks on the market.

Bridlewood: (MLS® 9004)
Residential unit sales up 4.9% and average selling price up 6.7% to $416,272, also experiencing acute listing inventory shortage. Typical sale occurs in 1-2 weeks on the market.

Kanata Lakes: (MLS® 9007)
Residential unit sales down 11.9% YTD with average selling price also slightly down to $487,882 (-1.0%) Listing inventory very limited, less than one month’s expected sales. Typical sale in 1-2 weeks on market and selling almost right at average listing price, if not above.

Morgan’s Grant: (MLS® 9008)
Unit sales down 15.8% with average selling price up 10.8% to $406,293
Very acute listing inventory shortages, further enhanced by limited new midrange construction in the immediate area. Also only 1-2 weeks on market to get a conditional sale.

Emerald Meadows/Trailwest: (MLS® 9010)
Unit sales have surged 29.9% through July 2017 (residential sales) and the average selling price is up 8.1% to $367,751. Very acute listing inventory shortage in this area! Also 1-2 weeks to achieve a conditional sale.

Note: to put the above in to perspective, overall residential unit sales have increased by 9% through July 2017 and the average selling price is up 6.9% to $426,365. Residential listing inventory at the end of August shows slightly more than 4 months of listing inventory available across the Board, with the average selling time in the 30-40 day range.

Summary:
lots of multiple offers and sales above list price which makes things easier for most sellers but then the buying side is a whole lot tougher.  Strong market should continue unless there is a larger than expected backlog created by those who bought new construction for future delivery start to feed their existing homes in to the market in large numbers.

With prices going up…what is your home worth in this market? Given that the price of your next home is probably going up faster than your current one, it might be a good idea to review your plans.

If you are thinking of a housing move, we would be happy to analyze and discuss your specific situation, assuming you are not already working with another Realtor.

We have some of the lowest fully supported MLS® listing rates in the city, especially for those who are both buying and selling with us. Give us a call at 416-435-4692 or check us out online at the co-ordinates below.

Gord McCormick, Broker of Record
Dawn Davey, Broker
Oasis Realty Brokerage
oasisrealty@rogers.com
www.oasisrealtyottawa.com  blog.oasisrealtyottawa.com
https://www.facebook.com/oasisrealtyottawa/
https://twitter.com/OasisrealtyOTT

11th year in business as a lower commission brokerage

Selling next spring? ….why time may be running out!

You’re kidding me right? We are not even at the end of August, yet “time may be running out”.

Well, think about it, there are only a few weeks of summer remaining (sorry!)  with weather warm enough to do a lot of outdoor prep that you will not have time to do in the early spring, because of cold or damp weather. This is true for anyone who may be contemplating a sale anytime between November and May but especially so for military personnel that are expecting a “posting notice” out of Ottawa which means an April listing.

Here are some sample projects that will help you get ready for a spring sale now:

Any outdoor painting, caulking, staining, sealing, parging or other concrete repair

Repair or replace any tired fencing or decking.

Thin out, weed and mulch gardens and plant new spring bulbs for colour.

Trim hedges, shrubs and replace any plants, trees or sod affected by bugs or heat.

Aerate, top dress and overseed the lawn and fertilize, so it will look great next spring. Hire a professional lawn service company or landscaping company if your lawn and gardens are in really poor condition.

Hint: extra watering in the fall right up to the time the snow flies is a great way to have lawns, trees, shrubbery and gardens look good early in the spring.

Clean out the eavestroughs once all the leaves are down this fall.

Get the windows cleaned inside and out.

De-clutter garage, garden shed and remove any extraneous items or materials from outside spaces.

Replace any tired outdoor furniture or accessories.

Dig out your home inspection manual and see if there are any outstanding items on the list that have not been completed.

Hint: consider a pre-listing home inspection right now! This may uncover things that need to be addressed and it may save a sale later. Many inspection items are a lot less expensive to fix before listing than after. A general home inspection may also conclude that a roofer, HVAC, foundation, WETT or other household system may require professional servicing or further inspection.  Better to find it now than later!

If there is a swimming pool, have it professionally closed and inspected this fall and keep copies of work orders, invoices and any repairs or quotes.

Get your driveway sealed, so it will look well maintained come spring.

You could also take some photos of the exterior of the house and yard, garden, shrubs, trees etc.  right now, as they probably look better right now than any time until early May.  Having some nice color photos to use for online in in home presentation during listings, is a great tool and allows prospective buyers to see the summer state of the exterior landscaping or other features.

This is by no means a complete list and you have not even started inside yet! If you would like to discuss what you need to do to be 100% “listing ready” for a spring or winter sale, by all means give us a call, if you are not already working with another Realtor.

 

Gord McCormick, Broker of Record
Dawn Davey, Broker
Oasis Realty Brokerage
613-435-4692
oasisrealty@rogers.com www.oasisrealtyottawa.com

A lower commission brokerage