Clublink plan to develop Kanata GC site a reminder for buyers and homeowners

Could there be more towers at Kanata GC?

Two of Ottawa’s long time builders (Minto and Richcraft)  are teaming up with Clublink, the owners of the Kanata Golf and Country Club (and about 50 other courses) to develop the site for residential purposes.  The course sits on prime real estate in Kanata Lakes and with the golf business sagging somewhat in recent years, Clublink is continuing down the road of trying to cash in their real estate investments.  Here is a link to the Ottawa Citizen article on this news: https://ottawacitizen.com/news/local-news/clublink-wants-to-bulldoze-kanata-golf-and-country-club-and-redevelop-with-two-home-builders

Déjà vu all over again?
Those thinking this is “déjà vu all over again” are correct, as we recently had news of a similar proposal for the Stonebridge GC in South Barrhaven that is owned by Mattamy Homes.  Mattamy has apparently backed off for the time being, after significant community backlash.  Clublink has also already been working on plans to develop the famous Glen Abbey golf course in Oakville, for several years-so they have been down this path before.

“Highest and Best Use”
The key principle of real estate value in appraisal is called “highest and best use” which basically means “what use would maximize the value of this piece of property?  In the case of many golf courses, the land value for development purposes clearly outweighs the value as a golf course.

Community backlash, for sure…. but will it be enough?
There will most assuredly be a vigorous community campaign to stop this proposed development and one hopes it succeeds but don’t count on it.  The builders and developer have done their homework and at the end of the day, have more resources, should they choose to get this done.

Stark reminder for all homeowners and buyers (and their agents!):
This is a compelling example of what may happen in any neighbourhood and buyers and homeowners have to keep this in mind.  The only constant is change and just because something is so today, does not mean it will always be.  We constantly see examples of listings where there are “no rear neighbours” (at least today)  and we always do our best to research what could conceivably get built on any nearby vacant land or if in fact, something is already proposed.

What could get built here some day?
Today’s farmers field or vacant lot, could be tomorrow’s gas station, mall, office building or condo tower, so buyers and their agents will want to do their homework and also weigh this intangible in their analysis of property suitability.

Even a couple of blocks away, property that is zoned or could easily be rezoned could mean a tall condo building soaring over your back yard someday.  Not easy to predict but worth thinking about nonetheless.

 

Gord McCormick, Broker of Record

Oasis Realty Brokerage 613-435-4692

Kanata starved for resale listing inventory in 2017

 

Ottawa listing inventory down 25% vs last year, 40% vs 2015

The Ottawa resale estate market is getting more than light on inventory after a year and a half of increasing unit sales coupled with a 10%+ decrease in the number of new listings, the overall market is down 25% on the number of available listings compared to a year ago and almost 40% from two years ago.

Even worse in Kanata!
As we approach the end of August, Kanata has barely one month’s worth of listing inventory to feed residential sales and about 3 months of condo sales. Normally, 4-6 months listing inventory is deemed to be a “balanced market”

How is this translating in to sales results?
Sales results have been surprisingly mixed with residential unit sales up 4.1% through July 2017 and condo unit sales up 22.6%. Somewhat surprisingly, residential sales are up an average of only 2.4% to $410,345 and condo sales basically flat (no increase) at $221,839.

Builders winning big this year:
While statistics are not readily available, it seems that new construction is having a runaway success in 2017. The last number we saw reported had builder starts up 44% this year and at least one builder has reported a 100% increase in sales.  Builders are also running out of inventory homes and we have seen numerous price increases and pull back on buyer incentives.

Neighbourhood synopsis:
Beaverbrook:
 (MLS® zone 9001)
Residential unit sales up 26.5 % through July with average selling price up 8.1% to $448,469.  The average house is selling in 1-2 weeks on the market, at slightly above listing prices.

Katimavik: (MLS® zone 9002)
Residential unit sales up 30.6% YTD with the average price up just 2% to $374,869.

Acute residential listing inventory shortage with less than a month of listing inventory currently on hand.
Typical sale is happening in 2-3 weeks on the market and selling at just below listing price.

Glencairn: (MLS® 9003)
Unit sales are up 18.3% with the average selling price up 6.2% to $312,878. Also acute listing inventory situation with less than one month’s anticipated sales available. Typical sale occurs in 2-3 weeks on the market.

Bridlewood: (MLS® 9004)
Residential unit sales up 4.9% and average selling price up 6.7% to $416,272, also experiencing acute listing inventory shortage. Typical sale occurs in 1-2 weeks on the market.

Kanata Lakes: (MLS® 9007)
Residential unit sales down 11.9% YTD with average selling price also slightly down to $487,882 (-1.0%) Listing inventory very limited, less than one month’s expected sales. Typical sale in 1-2 weeks on market and selling almost right at average listing price, if not above.

Morgan’s Grant: (MLS® 9008)
Unit sales down 15.8% with average selling price up 10.8% to $406,293
Very acute listing inventory shortages, further enhanced by limited new midrange construction in the immediate area. Also only 1-2 weeks on market to get a conditional sale.

Emerald Meadows/Trailwest: (MLS® 9010)
Unit sales have surged 29.9% through July 2017 (residential sales) and the average selling price is up 8.1% to $367,751. Very acute listing inventory shortage in this area! Also 1-2 weeks to achieve a conditional sale.

Note: to put the above in to perspective, overall residential unit sales have increased by 9% through July 2017 and the average selling price is up 6.9% to $426,365. Residential listing inventory at the end of August shows slightly more than 4 months of listing inventory available across the Board, with the average selling time in the 30-40 day range.

Summary:
lots of multiple offers and sales above list price which makes things easier for most sellers but then the buying side is a whole lot tougher.  Strong market should continue unless there is a larger than expected backlog created by those who bought new construction for future delivery start to feed their existing homes in to the market in large numbers.

With prices going up…what is your home worth in this market? Given that the price of your next home is probably going up faster than your current one, it might be a good idea to review your plans.

If you are thinking of a housing move, we would be happy to analyze and discuss your specific situation, assuming you are not already working with another Realtor.

We have some of the lowest fully supported MLS® listing rates in the city, especially for those who are both buying and selling with us. Give us a call at 416-435-4692 or check us out online at the co-ordinates below.

Gord McCormick, Broker of Record
Dawn Davey, Broker
Oasis Realty Brokerage
oasisrealty@rogers.com
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